Looking Ahead to 2020: Have the Primaries Already Started?

Posted by on Jan 29th, 2018

It would take an event of huge significance not to see President Trump headlining the Republican ticket in the 2020 Presidential election but it appears as though many Democrats are already fighting a battle against each other to face off against him, in an election that they will be desperate to win in order to remove an individual whom many of them openly loathe from the Oval Office.

Of course, it is arguable that many of those fueling the speculation are simply commentators interested in finding out more about who is taking part in what is often labeled the ‘invisible primary’, where candidates work out where they stand and whether they have enough of a backing to stand a serious chance of success before putting big money and resources into a national primary campaign.

Who’s in the Running?

One thing that the invisible primary phase tells us is who might consider running and, on the flipside, who isn’t interested. At the moment, those on the path to declaring their candidacy represent a wide range of candidates from all wings of the Democratic party. Those in the polling business have already started to look (albeit with a realization that polling at this stage is not truly indicative of what will happen on election day) at how the potential candidates would fare against President Trump.

Indeed, at William Hill, oddsmakers are already starting to calculate the chances each candidate has of winning the presidency or the nomination, with individuals such as Kamala Harris, Oprah, and Joe Biden all very much considered as real potential candidates and in with a truly realistic shout of winning both the democratic nomination and the presidency.

Of course, at this stage, those in the know will be looking to see if exploratory committees are being set up by these individuals to start the process of fundraising for any bid, especially as they know that President Trump is already very much in campaign mode, despite the election not being until 2020.

Working out How to Combat a Unique President

While President Trump is certainly a divisive figure, it is undeniable that he is also a unique president and one for whom normal political tactics don’t seem to apply. Indeed, with Trump having hardly been involved in the recent government shutdown negotiations, he has still emerged with credit at his door. In fact, he seems to have cemented his status as a great dealmaker and a man who can seemingly ensure at any given moment that his opponents get the blame (with the shutdown largely blamed on the Democrats, and Chuck Schumer in particular, who was forced to cave in to avoid generating too much negative publicity).

What this tells us is that any candidate who is prepared to go up against Trump not only needs to be able to find a way to take on Trump financially but also avoid being seen as too obstructive to the policies he is promoting. So, while it might seem like the momentum is with the Democrats, nobody considering running for president should be doing so without thinking they are in for one heck of a fight!